Why do meteorologists give weather forecasts for one week and not for 30 days? The sun rotates around its axis in 27-day cycles. During this time, the earth experiences the influence of four sectors of solar plasma of different magnetic polarity. 1 Each of the sectors influence the atmosphere for six to eight days, creating natural weather periods, making an accurate forecast possible. In transitional periods, however, the atmosphere's dynamics change and, as a result, the accuracy of a weather forecast decreases. In addition, the earth is influenced by solar and lunar tidal forces, which every seven days either accelerate or decelerate the speed of its rotation, 2 thus influencing the circulation of the atmosphere, oceans, and the earth's subterraneous viscous and liquid layers.
These natural cycles limit weather forecasts from five to seven days.
Average annual temperatures of the Northern Hemisphere are global parameters. Their considerable variability from year to year does not characterize seasonal changes of temperature and has yet to reflect long-term climatic fluctuations. The long-term solar and terrestrial oscillatory processes with periods of up to two million years depend on periodical movements and gravitational interactions of celestial bodies, which arise inside the solar system.
Unstable weather variations and stable climate oscillations are caused by processes of different temporal and spatial scales. Therefore, they have different physical origins and regularities, making it impossible to create a unified theory of weather and climatic processes.
Using an analogy, we can say that weather is like a whimsical person who lives day to day. Climate, on the other hand, behaves as solidly as a board of directors at a global bank. The board analyzes the past and projects the future earnings of the bank for many years to come. Ideas and feelings of an average individual, who does not consider the past and future, could never be compared to the decisions and approaches of the board of directors. Likewise, it is impossible to create a climatic model based on a physical model of weather. Nevertheless, meteorologists and climatologists have been obstinately pursuing it since 1900.
Global Warming is Not Cause of Dangerous Phenomena
"Now there is one outstandingly important fact regarding Spaceship Earth, and that is that no instruction book came with it." —Buckminster Fuller
As a result of aggressive advertising of the Kyoto Protocol ideals, we hear on a daily basis that extraordinary flooding, drought, or other dangerous weather phenomena are caused by global warming due to the accumulation of greenhouse gases from burning coal and oil.
Single dangerous weather phenomena are roughly limited in time and space. They emerge as local changes of weather and are not related to global warming or cooling trends. It is not correct to link an "unheard of" hurricane or an avalanche to global warming.
The other item is a substantial growth in the frequency of dangerous weather phenomena. The growth and changes in warming or cooling climatic tendencies occur every 2 to 12 years.
Temperature trend changes, as shown in the graph, coincide with highs and lows of the temperature curve. At these points the transformation of atmospheric circulation begins, which, as in the case with all transformation, leads to the increase in frequency of dangerous events.
It was predicted 20 years ago, using modeled curves, that an increased frequency of dangerous weather and tectonic events would take place in 2005 to 2006. 3,4 Catastrophes observed during the last two years are not connected in any way to natural warming, which prevailed in the world since 1920. They were caused by a sequential change in trend from warming to cooling. A hot day or a year is not proof of a global warming trend, just as an unusually cold year or couple of years in no way confirms a global cooling trend. It is only possible to speak about real trends if we have a minimum of ten consecutive annual temperatures.
To create an accurate climate forecast model, we need to know temperatures of the Northern Hemisphere for as long a time interval as possible. This long-term data can be precisely simulated by the mathematical model representing the sum of 12 to 14 main solar system oscillations 5,7 within the periods from 7 to 1,000 years (as shown in the model graph).
Many problems related to these oscillatory processes and their interactions to this day cannot be theoretically solved. That is why periods, phases, and amplitudes of the oscillations of natural processes should be computed using various sets of observed and reconstructed data.
Two Main Scientific Frauds of the Kyoto Protocol
"Get your facts first, and then you can distort them as much as you please." —Mark Twain
Stable climate oscillations have been estimated from annual tree-ring growth. 5,6,7 The reconstruction showed that the only difference in the modern warming of the Northern Hemisphere from previous warming periods consists of its occasional coincidence with the current technical progress. So it seems that changes in Northern Hemisphere temperature for almost 100 years often correlate well with the growth in the number of cars and engines on our planet, as well as the amount of fuel they burn.
The coincidence of the above mentioned independent processes has formed the "scientific basis" for some climatologists. They believe that modern industrialization is catastrophically warming up the planet. Carbon dioxide (СО 2 ) is formed in the process of burning fuel. These climatologists think that this СО 2 , like the glass above a greenhouse, covers an atmosphere, causing the rise in air temperature. As a result, they try to impose this incorrect climatic script on the whole world.
There are two principal mistakes in the "scientific foundation" of the U.N. Kyoto Protocol:
1. There have been many periods in the earth's geological history when it was warmer and the atmosphere contained more СО 2 than present (0.03 percent). The proponents of the Kyoto Protocol use this correlation as proof of effective greenhouse influence on the atmosphere. In fact, the increase in СО 2 is due to a natural increase in temperature of the surface of the ocean water. The warmer the climate and oceans, the more СО 2 is released from the oceans to the atmosphere. It is a well-known chemical fact: СО 2 escapes from water at heating periods. There is strong evidence that increases in СО 2 concentrations happened centuries after the increases in temperatures. 8 The result of warming (isolation of СО 2 ) was intentionally commingled with the reason of the existence of the warm climate periods.
2. Terrestrial air holds heat better than carbon dioxide (СО 2 ). The saturation of the atmosphere by additional amounts of СО 2 always leads to cooling-off tendencies of the air. Theoretical estimations showed that replacement of an existing nitrogen-oxygen (78 percent/21 percent) blend in the earth's atmosphere for the СО 2 (100 percent) would result in cooling of the terrestrial surface by almost 2°С 9 (http://macroevolution.narod.ru/sorohtin.htm).
Nature is wiser than human beings. When the climate becomes warmer, nature extracts from the terrestrial waters additional portions of СО 2 gas, which is very useful for plants at that time. With this evidence, one can see assumptions about global warming being related to the modern industrial boom and its "greenhouse gas effects" are simply incorrect.
Climate Change and Pollution Are Not Connected
"Bad taste is simply saying the truth before it should be said." —Mel Brooks
An excellent coincidence or highly significant correlation between computer-generated global air temperatures 5,7 and independently restored ones 6 for as long as 1,200 years (see graph) shows that the mathematical model accurately describes the oscillations of Northern Hemisphere temperatures for 14 periods ranging from 7 to 1,029 years. The simulated and reconstructed curves capture many of the same events that have occurred on the decade and central scale. This empirical physical model can be used for climatic forecasts and reconstruction for at least the next 1,500 years.
The modern global warming-up (1920 to 2035 years), past and future significant cooling-off and warming-up tendencies are caused by adding together all modeled climatic oscillations, especially periods of 230, 515 and 1,029 years, formed inside the solar system 7 . That is why climate change is not connected with industrial "greenhouse gases" in any way. All long-term changes of the Northern Hemisphere temperatures have a natural origin and oscillatory character (see graph).
Movements toward pure water and clean air should deal with local and regional pollution problems, which have nothing to do with the global climate change.
In particular, the pollution of the atmosphere's lower layers in Canada and Russia influences only their own territories. At latitudes of these countries, air streams move mainly from the west. These countries are bordered on the east by the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, where air is cleansed naturally.
Sources of contamination and areas of their harmful influence can be easily detected. They cannot be managed by the Kyoto Protocol's global rules, which have not scientific basis.
We have to work out national and international laws and regulations that would make polluting manufacturing processes unprofitable.
Who Is Guilty and What Should We Do?
"To be or not to be? That is the question." —William Shakespeare
Model forecasts based on periodicity of climatic processes reliably predict future global cold spells. Now, on the earth, we have one of the warmest and most favorable periods of our glacial epoch. For the last one million years, intervals favorable for life have constituted no more than 10 percent of time. Periods similar to a modern climate were no more than 1 percent. All ancient civilizations, including ours, came into being during the interglacial warming period, which is now coming to an end. Only 12 thousand years ago, glaciers had covered—fully or partially—the territories of Alaska, Canada, the countries of Europe, Russia, Ukraine, and China and a new glacier period is approaching.
To preserve the infrastructure of our civilization, it is necessary to artificially decrease the climatic fluctuations and stabilize global temperatures. We need to learn how to preserve a warm climate as soon as possible. The first significant temperature drop will tentatively start in 2035. To control the climate, it requires significant preliminary expenditures of time and resources. We need to start scientific and experimental studies directed at controlling natural energy fluxes in the near earth space and at the earth's surface. Since the minimum experimental cycle should be 22 years, we need to hurry up!
The programs of the Kyoto Protocol should be reexamined since they endanger our civilization. On the eve of severe natural climate changes, they direct studies, money flow, and propaganda along an incorrect path. From the very beginning, temperature drop will cause the shutdown of the northern seaways and will radically hinder production and delivery of hydrocarbons and other minerals. Northern countries, with the help of the entire world, must urgently begin to study, design, and build technical systems for dealing with the future temperature drops.
1 Smirnov, R.V., 1967, Doklady Akademii Nauk SSSR, Vol.175. #1, p.117.
2 Sidorenkov, N.S., 2002. Atmospheric Processes and Rotation of the Earth, Hydrometeoizdat, Saint Petersburg, 2002, 366 p. (in Russian).
3 Berry, B. L., Myagkov, S. M., Freidlin, V. S., 1986. Synchronous changes in activity of dangerous natural phenomena and their forecasting. Vestnik Moskovskogo universiteta, seriia Geografiia, N 3, p.23-30 (in Russian).
4 Berry, B. L., 1991. Synchronous processes in the Earth's shells and their cosmic reasons. Vestnik Moskovskogo Universiteta, seriya Geografiya, N 1, p.20-27 (in Russian).
5 Berry, B. L., Liberman, A. A., Shiyatov S. G., 1983. Reconstruction and prediction of the northern hemisphere temperatures from the variations of the tree-ring indexes of the polar boundary of the forest zone. Vestnik Moskovskogo universiteta, seriia Geografiia, N 4, p.41-47 (in Russian).
6 Esper J., Cook E. R., Schweingruber F.H., 2002. Low-frequency signals in long tree-ring chronologies for reconstructing past temperature variability. Science, 295, 2250-2253 (2002).
7 Berry B. L., 2006. Solar system oscillations and models of natural processes. Journal of Geodynamics 41, 133-139).
8 Petit, J. R., Jouzel, J. et al., 1999. Climatic and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica. Nature, v. 399, p.429-436.
9 Sorohtin, O. G., Ushakov, S. A., 2002. Development of the Earth. Moscow University, Moscow. 506 p. (in Russian), http://macroevolution.narod.ru/sorohtin.htm.
Assistance with improving my article from D. Fieldstone and A. Ellsmore is gratefully acknowledged.
Boris Berry, Ph.D., D.Sc. is the current editor of the Internet journal Annals of Disasters, Periodicity & Prediction.