Consistent Patterns and Contingencies in Global Temperature Changes
Air temperature readings in the northern hemisphere (NH) have been recorded since 1841 (Fig. 1). This is too short a time period to draw any conclusions about climatic cycles. In the northwestern woods of Siberia, we obtained series of tree-rings growth (1660-1965), which reflected changes in temperatures in the NH.
The graphs of 7 years mean temperatures and tree-rings illustrate how temperature drops are regularly followed by temperature rises and vice versa. This model (Fig. 1) of the northern hemisphere temperature anomalies (MNHTA) predicts the temperatures of the NH after 1965. Climate variations include the predictable regular component and the random component. Forecast errors are due to the random component.
If we could have predicted climatic changes in 1900, we would have made two correct, but opposite forecasts:
- 1. The climate will be cooler by 1910
- 2. The climate will be warmer by 1930
The same forecasts could have been made in 1900 by using the graphs of the model temperatures of the NH (Fig. 1), which constitutes the synthesis of 12 climatic cycles with periods ranging from 7 to 230 years.
The parameters of these cycles (periods, amplitudes and phases) were calculated using the mathematical analysis of the series of the tree-rings for 1660-1965. Therefore, this model allows the prediction of correct long-term climatic forecasts.
In the past, Pharaohs were able to get more precise forecasts than the Kyoto Protocol scientists provide today. Over long-term observations, Egyptian Druids discovered stable cycles of natural processes and used them for forecasts. They could predict changes in solar activity, as well as cotton crops for many years in advance.
The physical causes of the existence of these stable rhythms inside our solar system are clear now . However, climatic and other models of natural processes are still empirical.
Today, it is impossible to theoretically calculate the characteristics of natural cycles because we do not have enough knowledge about the intrinsic properties and the processes taking place inside the sun and the earth. Therefore, the parameters of natural cycles are being calculated empirically, as before, by using long series of observations, i.e., tree-rings and geological data.
Validation of the climatic model (1660-1965) using independent reconstructions of climate shows that the model reproduces past temperatures accurately and therefore can be used for forecasting(Fig. 1). Adding the cycles to the model with periods of 515 and 1030 years, which were found by the author in another climatic model, makes it possible to predict future temperatures of the NH for thousands of years to come.
The current warm climatic period is coming to an end. Our civilization depends on climate, not the other way around.
The "Industrial" Climate Changes in the Twentieth Century
From its very origin, climatology made attempts to find connections between warming trends and burning fuel. This is reasonable, since the climatic system is considered to be nonlinear, chaotic and unpredictable.
If so, a long-term forecast appears to be possible only where there exists an external force, which constantly warms or cools the earth's atmosphere. As a result, gases that originated from fuel combustion were chosen; the main one being carbon dioxide—CO2.
Climatologists assumed that minute additions of CO2 to the atmosphere could effectively hold heat around the earth. Climatologists attempted to prove this incorrect hypothesis starting at the end of the nineteenth century. Small additions of CO2 do not influence climate at all—the complete replacement of the existing atmosphere with CO2 would only lead to a 2°C drop in temperature.
In 1890, climatologists made their first attempt to identify the warming caused by industry. At that time, it was a reasonable hypothesis, which had to be researched. Scientists drew a straight line on the graph and came up with their first prediction about the "nonstop industrial climate change" (Fig. 1, cursor 1). This warming period was only about 10 years long. However, in 1898, despite an increase in the quantity of fuel burned, the climate began to cool off again. Similar changes occurred again in 1920 (cursor 2).
Warming tendencies were observed for more than 20 years, from 1908 through 1930, but then a cooling period started again.
Thereafter, it seemed reasonable to forget this hypothesis. Starting in 1920, the climatologists turned to the investigation of solar-terrestrial cycles.
Political Interest in Climate Change
Despite the lack of correlation, climatologists have held onto their old theories, which were ignored by everyone else at that time. There were more important events taking place in that time period. World War II had started and ended and two opposing camps attempted to reorganize the world.
World and regional wars are an extension of governmental policies to support national producers and corporations, which require cheap raw materials and labor resources. Therefore, politicians, who are the experts and envious of foreign wealth, paid primary attention to chemistry (poisonous gases and explosives), physics (atomic and H-bombs), aeronautics and space ships to expand their economic resources. Strong armies talk about neutron bombs, which do not destroy houses, mills or factories, but annihilate only the living, aided peaceful "negotiations" with other countries. Thus, politics "preserved" peace without paying any attention to climatology.
Currently, politicians around the world are creating new infrastructures for the "soft" management of energy resources, manufacturing and trade between different countries. Intimidation of other countries using weapons and war to support their own national businesses as in Iraq, becomes meaningless. It is much cheaper to use these new 'political' strategies.
Climate fluctuations simultaneously and fairly influence all countries of the world. Therefore, in the era of globalization, a climate maintenance activity is a practical banner and a tool of economic influence upon different countries. Hence, politicians decided to use the climate in order to gain access to and manage international monetary resources, industry and the economies of different countries.
The erroneous climatologists' theory about the influence of CO2 on climate turned out to be very accommodative excuse to justify global control over the industries of all countries. As a result, an unprecedented campaign of an impending climate warming catastrophe due to industrial releases of CO2 was launched. Accordingly, climatology became a more important weapon than a nuclear threat in international relations.
Since 2005, the Kyoto Protocol has become the official document of action for at least 55 countries that produce about 55% of the total industrial CO2 releases. At that time, Russia ratified this agreement under pressure from external and internal lobbyists, who have been getting grants from special funds. Russia has played its "climatic" role, but it was unsuccessful. Russia agreed to limit its production of CO2 to 1990 levels, when its economy was very sluggish.
The USA, China, India and a number of other countries refused to sign this document. These countries produce about 45% of industrial CO2 releases but they do not want to set limits. And they are right! Only powerful energetic strategies and purposeful developments will help our civilization survive the future cyclic drops in temperatures. The beginning of the cooling period will start around 2035-2150.
It would be better for taxpayers if their money went to improving local industrial pollution issues, such as water, soil and air contamination. But unfortunately, their money is wasted on the propaganda of false ideas and battling CO2 gas that is in fact very beneficial for vegetation and therefore living beings.
There are many experimental and theoretical studies, which reliably prove that industry does not influence global climate. Nevertheless, this valuable data is not being published in the leading scientific journals and newspapers, nor reviewed on TV or radio.
A Dangerous Game
Lack of unbiased information is especially dangerous, when it comes to the very existence of humanity.
Just imagine, what if not only one genetic scientist from South Korea published false results about the creation of stem cells (a disclosure that occurred December of 2005), but that the well-organized international group of politicians and geneticists, on the basis of fabricated data, would create a widely promoted UN program for the genetic improvement of the human race. Only this program would be more dangerous than the agenda of the Kyoto Protocol!
Note: (1) Pleistocene epoch: The epoch that extended from about 1.8 million years ago to 10,000 years ago on the geologic time scale; when the most recent glaciations occurred.
Dr. Boris Berry is an Environmentalist, Geologist-Geophysicist, Glaciologist, Dendroclimatologist, Ph.D., D.Sc. He is also the editor of the Internet Journal "Annals of Disasters, Periodicity & Prediction", (ADP&P; http://www.netpilot.ca/geocryology/annals/index.html).
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